A year into his tenure, a majority of Americans would already vote against Pres. Obama if the ’12 elections were held today, according to a new survey.

The Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll shows 50% say they would probably or definitely vote for someone else. Fully 37% say they would definitely cast a ballot against Obama. Meanwhile, just 39% would vote to re-elect the pres. to a 2nd term, and only 23% say they definitely would do so.

Obama’s first year in office has been marked by an unemployment rate that surged to 10%, an increased commitment of troops to Afghanistan and a health care battle that has taken a serious political toll on the WH.

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President Obama’s job approval numbers will dip below 50% for the first time today in Gallup’s daily tracking poll, according to a Gallup official.

“Gallup Daily tracking results just in. Obama will be below 50% for the first time when we update our numbers at 1:00 p.m.,” wrote Gallup.com managing news editor Lymari Morales on Twitter.

His approval numbers have bounced down to the 50% mark several times, driven by weaker support from independents and Republicans, but hadn’t crossed it.

The slide is worrying for the White House, but it’s probably not yet panic time. Ronald Reagan’s approval numbers dropped well below 40% during the depths of his first term recession. If Obama’s bad stretch puts him in the high forties or low fifties, that’s not a crippling political problem. If he languishes there or drops further, it may become one.